This EDF/Sabin Center paper investigates the potential legal bases for the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to enact climate measures. It finds that the IMO has broad powers to enact almost any required measure, and quickly via a tacit amendment to the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL).
Posted on - 2018-06-28A new study released by UMAS estimates that the EU has, to date, directly spent $250 million on Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) projects in the marine sector, providing 50% partnership funding with the private sector to support a total of $500 million investment.
This half-billion of spending will have no significant climate benefits at best, and could potentially increase greenhouse gas emissions from shipping, a conclusion in line with leading research in the field, the study finds., making LNG incapable of achieving the reductions required under the recently adopted International Maritime Organisation (IMO) strategy on reducing GHG emissions from ships.
“There is an uncertain future demand for LNG as a marine fuel over the next 10 years. On the one hand, it is an option for complying with the 2020 sulphur cap, but as it cannot enable the GHG reductions that have been committed to in the IMO’s initial strategy for GHG reduction, and the Paris temperature goals more generally, it is clear its role in shipping's transition to a low carbon future can only be transient” Domagoj Baresic, Consultant, UMAS and PhD researcher, UCL Energy Institute.
The cash flow for the “Limited Gas” scenario (LNG demand and investment flow in quickly initially, but with the development of zero emissions fuels, the demand for LNG soon peaks and declines) is strongly negative with a Net Present Value of -$211 million (-$100 million if only CAPEX is considered, which is the stranded investment aspect of the cost), which can be considered a direct investment loss by 2050. This scenario shows the potential risk of investing heavily in LNG bunkering infrastructure under Directive 2014/94/EU guidelines, if LNG is not taken up as a marine fuel by the maritime industry. As a result of a higher take up of biofuels and hydrogen (both of which also fall under Directive 2014/94/EU), and a strong push to get closer to the EU 2050 shipping 40% emission abatement target and IMO 2050 targets, LNG never becomes heavily diffused into the shipping industry.
Posted on - 2018-06-28Multiple fuel options are on the table to reach zero emissions but all have their associated issues which need to be explored now both to identify the best of these options, and ensure they mature and become available.
The report also examines electric power and hydrogen fuel cells, and takes note of the upstream CO2 emissions, which will need to be very low as these fuels will be judged on a “well to wake” whole lifecycle perspective. With development of other sector’s low carbon technologies and energy production’s decarbonisation it is expected that very low upstream emissions associated with these fuels will be achievable.
Dr Tristan Smith, Reader at UCL Energy Institute: “The shipping industry requires rapid technological changes to enable zero-emission ships: moving from fossil fuels to a combination of electricity (batteries), renewable fuels derived from hydrogen, and potentially bioenergy”
Dr Carlo Raucci, Principal Consultant at UMAS: “This study highlights the drivers, benefits and challenges of the most promising technologies. The shipping industry has a unique opportunity to contribute to the large potential for improvements of such technologies and aim for a profitable zero-emission service.”